The global cruise industry is poised for a strong year of financial and operational expansion, according to the seventh consecutive annual cruise market forecast released by Cruise Market Watch. Building upon positive momentum from the previous year—when actual 2014 revenues outperformed original projections by 0.5%—industry analysts anticipate broad-based gains across revenue, passenger volume, and overall fleet capacity as the sector looks toward 2015 and beyond.
The worldwide cruise market is estimated to reach $39.6 billion in 2015, representing a significant 6.9% increase compared to the previous year. This substantial financial growth is expected to be driven by a combination of factors, including a higher volume of cruisers, increased fleet capacity, and upward adjustments in ticket pricing.
Passenger volumes are also projected to rise steadily over the course of the year. Cruise Market Watch forecasts that the industry will carry 22.2 million passengers worldwide in 2015, marking a 3.2% increase over 2014 figures.
Geographically, North America remains the dominant source market for the global cruise industry, expected to account for 58.6% of all passengers carried, with travelers originating from Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Europe follows as the second-largest sourcing region at 25.9%, while Asia accounts for 8.5% and Australia represents 4.3% of the global passenger base. As the industry evolves, international sourcing patterns are projected to shift gradually, with regions outside North America and Europe expected to capture a larger share of travelers in the coming years.
On the operational side, total worldwide cruise capacity by the end of 2015 is projected to reach 486,385 lower berths across a combined fleet of 298 ships. This capacity will be distributed among a diverse array of vessels, ranging from traditional mid-sized ships to massive, newly constructed mega-ships designed to accommodate thousands of guests.
Financial metrics for the average traveler reflect the steady demand for cruise vacations. The total price of an average cruise is calculated at $1,779.82 per person for 2015, representing a 3.5% increase over 2014 pricing levels. When broken down further, the average per passenger, per day spending is projected to reach $222.00. This daily expenditure is comprised of an average ticket price of $168.43 alongside $53.57 in on-board spending, which encompasses specialty dining, excursions, retail, and other services. These figures are calculated based on an average cruise duration of 8.0 days and a median duration of 7.0 days.
Market consolidation remains a defining characteristic of the modern cruise industry. The top three major cruise companies—Carnival Corporation, trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker CCL; Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., trading under the ticker RCL; and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker NCLH—continue to command the vast majority of the global market. Together, these three industry giants account for 81.6% of the worldwide share of passengers carried and 76.7% of total worldwide cruise revenues.
Reflecting continued international growth and strategic fleet reallocations, several notable ship transfers are scheduled for 2015. Among them, the Celebrity Century is set to transfer to the TUI brand to operate as the Mein Schiff 3. Additionally, Holland America’s Ryndam and Statendam will both transfer to P&O Australia, while the Seabourn Legend and Seabourn Spirit are scheduled to join the Windstar fleet. Concurrently, major operators including Carnival, Costa, and P&O Australia are strategically positioning a combined total of 13 ships to homeport in Asia and Australia, while the Royal Caribbean brand will station another five cruise ships in the region to meet surging local demand.
Fleet expansion remains a primary driver of industry revenue. A total of six new ships are scheduled to join the global fleet in 2015, adding a combined passenger capacity of 18,813 berths. Among these highly anticipated newbuilds are the 4,200-passenger Norwegian Escape, the 4,100-passenger Royal Caribbean Anthem of the Seas, the 3,611-guest P&O Britannia, and the 3,250-berth TUI Cruises Mein Schiff 4.
Looking further ahead into the medium term, the industry’s growth trajectory shows no signs of slowing down. An additional 15 new cruise ships are currently slated to enter service by the end of 2017, which will expand overall passenger capacity by 39,637 berths—an 8.1% increase—and generate an estimated $3.6 billion in additional annual revenue for the global cruise sector.
Long-term projections extend the outlook toward the end of the decade. By 2019, the industry anticipates carrying 25.3 million cruise passengers worldwide. Of that total, North America is expected to remain the primary source market at 55.8%, followed by Europe at 25.1%, with the remaining 19.1% originating from other international markets around the globe.
